The Meteorology Department has cautioned that widespread rainfall is expected across Sri Lanka within the next ten days, with forecasts indicating possible heavy rains, landslides, and floods linked to the prevailing El Niño condition.

Director General Ajith Wijemanne, speaking at a media briefing today (16), said that while preparations are in place to face El Niño, authorities and the public must remain vigilant as extreme weather could intensify in the coming months.

He noted that October and November are traditionally months of continuous disturbances in the Bay of Bengal, and under El Niño these could become more severe, bringing increased rainfall and heightened risk of floods and landslides.

Wijemanne added that in December, heavier rainfall is expected in the northeastern region of the island, while the Northern and Eastern Provinces are forecast to receive normal rainfall.

However, under the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) condition, flood situations could still arise in those areas, he added. 

Looking ahead, he warned that February to April 2027 is likely to bring higher temperatures and reduced rainfall, stressing the need for careful management of water resources in the months ahead. (Newswire/ AI Image)

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Sri Lanka is likely to experience above-normal rainfall during October and November, followed by significantly drier conditions early next year as the ongoing El Niño strengthens, Wijemanne said.

Wijemanne told the media that the El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean had strengthened further over the past month, with the latest global forecasts indicating unusually high sea-surface temperatures across key monitoring regions.

He said Sri Lanka could see relatively low rainfall during the next two weeks of September before rainfall gradually increases towards the end of the month.

“We expect widespread rainfall across the country, with October and November receiving above-normal rainfall,” he said.

Wijemanne  stressed that El Niño does not simply mean drought for Sri Lanka, explaining that its impact varies depending on the country’s monsoon cycle.

He said increased rainfall is expected during the October-November second inter-monsoon period, while rainfall is likely to decline after January.

According to Wijemanne, drier-than-normal conditions could affect many parts of Sri Lanka during January, February, March and possibly April next year, creating a potential risk of water shortages.

He said authorities should therefore use the coming months to prepare for both increased rainfall later this year and possible dry conditions early next year, including through appropriate water management.

Wijemanne said a Cabinet-appointed committee on El Niño is already meeting regularly, bringing together relevant state agencies to assess the developing situation and take necessary precautions.

He added that both daytime and nighttime temperatures in Sri Lanka are also expected to remain relatively high during the El Niño period. (Newswire)

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Leader of the House, Minister Bimal Rathnayake today (10) commended Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa for raising concerns about the impacts of the El Niño–La Niña climate phenomenon on Sri Lanka. 

Addressing the Parliament, Rathnayake noted that Premadasa had been drawing attention to the issue for over six months, stressing the importance of continued parliamentary debate on the matter.

“The Opposition Leader had raised concerns over the climate issue ahead of the UN Climate Organization’s confirmation of the current El Nino situation, which was issued on June 02. You had raised the matter nearly six months prior to this warning. We respect it,” he added. 

His remarks come after speaking under Standing Order 27(2), Premadasa urged the government to make the public aware of official forecasts regarding El Niño–La Niña impacts. 

He recalled that on 22 June 2026, the Cabinet appointed a special ministerial sub‑committee and an officials’ committee under the chairmanship of the Minister of Environment to prepare short‑, medium‑ and long‑term plans for managing possible water, electricity and food crises. Premadasa said the Samagi Jana Balawegaya had already warned the country six months earlier that such conditions were developing.

Premadasa pressed for district‑wise data from the Disaster Management Centre and the National Disaster Relief Services Centre on people affected by drought. He insisted that the official forecast presented by the Meteorology Department to the sub‑committee be made public, noting that while some estimates suggest a 63% likelihood of impact, the World Meteorological Organization has indicated the probability could rise to 80%.

He questioned what measures had been taken to protect the public from upcoming disasters, asking for clarity on the expected peak period of El Niño and whether risks extend beyond drought to include floods and landslides during the October–November monsoon. Premadasa called for early warnings and protective measures for vulnerable districts such as Northern, Eastern, Monaragala, Badulla, Ampara, Hambantota and Batticaloa.

Premadasa also raised concerns about the impact of reduced hydropower on consumer electricity bills. He requested data on Mahaweli reservoir water levels, the additional costs of relying on thermal power plants, and the sub‑committee’s assessment of how these factors could affect household bills in the coming months.

On agriculture, Premadasa asked what relief had been given to farmers affected by drought. He sought information on hectares of paddy and other crops damaged, whether compensation and insurance payments had been made, and if seed paddy, fertilizer subsidies and water release plans for the Maha season were adequately coordinated.

Premadasa added that consistent focus on El Niño–La Niña impacts was timely and necessary, and urged the government to respond with transparency and concrete action. (Newswire)

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El Niño is strengthening rapidly in the Pacific Ocean, raising the prospect of months of extreme heat, floods, drought, and disruptive weather around the globe.

The phenomenon, already firmly established, is expected to become “very strong” and peak around the end of the year, according to new forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027 is now close to 100 per cent. Never before has the UN weather agency issued such an unequivocal forecast for El Niño or its cooler counterpart, La Niña.

A supersize problem

And beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific lies another cause for concern. An enormous reservoir of unusually warm water that could continue feeding El Niño in the months ahead.

In some parts of the Pacific, subsurface temperatures in July and early August were more than eight degrees Celsius (around 14 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal.

The combination points toward an unusually powerful climate event unfolding on a planet already significantly warmer because of greenhouse gas emissions.

“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a press release on Thursday. “The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.”

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that typically develops every two to seven years, when waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm. That warming can alter atmospheric circulation thousands of miles away, shifting rainfall and temperature patterns everywhere. 

But this El Niño is developing against an unusual backdrop. The oceans are already exceptionally warm, providing a hotter baseline on which the natural climate cycle is playing out.

Scientists have not established that man-made climate change is increasing or intensifying El Niño. But a warmer atmosphere and ocean can amplify some of its consequences, increasing the heat and moisture available to fuel extreme weather.

The latest measurements show how quickly the current event is developing. 

The Niño 3.4 index, a closely watched measure of ocean temperatures in the central tropical Pacific, averaged 1.5°C above normal from May through July. By July, it had reached 2°C, and weekly readings from late July through mid-August climbed as high as 2.6 degrees.

The heat extends well below the surface – a sign that the warming is not fleeting and that El Niño has considerable fuel left.

A global pattern, uneven consequences

A very strong El Niño does not mean that every region will experience disasters of the same magnitude.

From September through November, however, forecasters expect above-normal temperatures across nearly the entire Earth’s surface.

Rainfall patterns are also taking on the characteristic signature of El Niño, with greater chances of heavy rain and flooding in some places and drought in others.

Other forces could complicate that picture. A positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole – another large-scale shift in ocean temperatures – is expected to develop, while the tropical Atlantic is forecast to remain unusually warm.

Those overlapping patterns make it impossible to translate the strength of El Niño into a precise forecast for any individual country. But collectively, the signals point toward a period of heightened risk.

“El Niño means ‘little boy’ in Spanish, but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies around the world,” Celeste Saulo, head of WMO, said. “We are already seeing the disruption and devastation caused by droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to worsen as El Niño intensifies.”

Historic mobilisation

The forecast has prompted an unusual response. It’s the first time ever WHO has launched a mobilisation of this scale with national weather agencies, seeking to strengthen forecasts and early-warning systems as the risks mount.

The effort is intended to help governments and humanitarian organizations prepare for the effects on particularly vulnerable sectors, including agriculture, public health, energy and water supplies.

“This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparedness and response,” Ms. Saulo said.

That underscores how much of this El Niño still lies ahead. The phenomenon is already exceptionally strong, and it has yet to peak.

The question is no longer whether El Niño will strengthen, but how much heat – and disruption – it will leave behind. (UN News)

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Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa has accused the Government of “absolute negligence” in failing to prepare for the looming twin disasters predicted under El Niño conditions, drought through the year‑end followed by floods and landslides when rains return.

In a post on ‘X’, Premadasa said the absence of a contingency plan to protect lives and property was indefensible given the high‑risk warnings. 

“There is a high possibility that El Niño will result in not one but two disasters,” he cautioned.

His comments come in response to a new UN Asia‑Pacific assessment that places Sri Lanka among countries of “elevated concern.” The report warns of stronger El Niño conditions coinciding with rising costs and possible heavy rainfall during the upcoming Maha cultivation season.

According to the joint study by the FAO, WFP, UN Women, WMO and UN humanitarian agencies, above-average rainfall is possible from October as the Second Inter‑Monsoon begins. While additional rain could help replenish reservoirs, excessive rainfall during Maha planting may trigger flooding, waterlogging and delays to agricultural activities. (Newswire)

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The Meteorology Department has cautioned that Sri Lanka could face flood situations in October and November as the ongoing El Niño condition intensifies.

Speaking to the media, Director General Ajith Wijemanna said data analysis for the next six months indicates rainfall levels may exceed the seasonal average during this period.

“Normally, 30% of the annual rainfall occurs in these two months. If it increases further, heavy rains could fill reservoirs and sometimes cause floods. By October and November, rain spreads across the whole of Sri Lanka. Heavy rains are possible. It cannot be said that floods will definitely come. But we must be prepared. There is also a possibility,” Wijemanna said.

He added that while floods are not certain, precautionary measures are essential. The Met Department has urged authorities and the public to remain vigilant.

Meanwhile, Wijemanna noted that the El Niño condition is expected to have a strong impact during December, January, and February, potentially bringing further extreme weather. (Newswire)

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The government has allocated Rs. 3,000 million to swiftly pay agricultural insurance compensation to farmers whose crops have been damaged by the ongoing dry weather conditions under the El Niño situation.

Reports indicate that paddy and other crops including maize have suffered losses in Monaragala, Polonnaruwa, Hambantota, Anuradhapura, and Ampara districts.

Damage assessments show paddy losses of 1,401 acres in Monaragala, 1,259 acres in Polonnaruwa, 783 acres in Hambantota, 1,055 acres in Ampara, and 1,923 acres in Anuradhapura. Altogether, about 8,000 acres belonging to nearly 7,000 farmers have been affected.

Field officers of the Agricultural and Agrarian Insurance Board and assistants from the Department of Agrarian Development are currently visiting affected lands to carry out evaluations.

The government’s aim is to release compensation funds before the next cultivation season to provide relief. The Minister of Agriculture, Livestock, Lands and Irrigation has instructed officials to expedite payments for damaged paddy fields.

For six crops, maize, big onion, potato, soybean, and chili, compensation will be paid at Rs. 100,000 per hectare, with a maximum of five acres per farmer.

Farmers who have not yet reported damages are urged to inform agrarian officers or record losses at Agrarian Development Centers. For further details, the Insurance Board has advised farmers to call the hotline 1918. (Newswire)

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The Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) has cautioned that the ongoing El Niño weather conditions could drive electricity demand higher while reducing generation capacity as water resources dry up.

PUCSL Chairman K. P. L. Chandralal said that in such circumstances, the country faces the risk of a power shortage. 

He made these remarks during today’s media briefing on the newly announced feed‑in tariffs for electricity generated from renewable energy sources.

Chandralal noted that an estimated 450‑megawatt reduction in battery storage systems could occur as a result of the prevailing conditions, making it more difficult to ensure an uninterrupted power supply.

The Commission stressed the need to prepare for these challenges by expanding renewable energy integration and maintaining sufficient storage capacity to ensure grid stability and a reliable electricity supply. (Newswire)

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While water levels in the island’s main reservoirs in the wet zone remain stable, those in the dry zone are rapidly declining, with water storage across Sri Lanka’s 74 major reservoirs dropping to just 36% of capacity, Irrigation Director Suriya Bandara warned.

Addressing the media, he said that in districts such as Hambantota, Batticaloa, Monaragala, Mannar and Trincomalee, water levels in some reservoirs have already dropped below 30% capacity. 

According to the Director, the situation has worsened this year due to the El Niño climatic anomaly, intensifying the usual August dry season. Excessive heat has accelerated evaporation, further reducing available water.

As demand rises, resources are shrinking. Suriya Bandara cautioned that while drinking water supplies remain unaffected, allocations for cultivation have already been restricted in some areas. 

He stressed that in severely affected regions, priority must be given to drinking water and environmental needs, making agricultural releases increasingly difficult.

He emphasized that the only way to face this challenge is to use water sparingly and live in an environmentally sensitive manner.

The Director also warned of heightened risks of forest fires, which could spread rapidly under current hot and dry conditions. 

He urged strict vigilance and highlighted the importance of staying updated on El Niño forecasts to prepare for future climate changes. (Newswire)

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With the ongoing El Niño phenomenon, 22 Divisional Secretariat divisions across seven districts have been affected, Environment Minister Dammika Patabendige said.

He said 25,563 families, comprising 81,605 individuals, are currently facing hardships due to the dry weather.

The Minister noted that drinking water has already been supplied to around 20,000 families, following discussions with Divisional Secretaries. 

He further stated that ministries and departments are working in coordination under a national operational plan to mitigate the impact, with the dry spell expected to last until the end of September.

According to the Minister, rainfall is anticipated from October through December, with heavier showers than usual expected during the second inter‑monsoon season. Awareness programs for farmers have begun, and cultivation activities are being encouraged.

Looking ahead, drought conditions are forecast for February–April 2027, with measures planned to collect water during rainy periods, manage reservoir levels, and renovate tanks during dry spells.

Minister Patabendige stressed that the government has not abandoned these issues, urging collective action and caution against exaggerating disaster reports. 

He added that Sri Lanka is also influenced by other climatic phenomena, including the Indian Ocean dipole, which has had a favorable effect.

Meanwhile, the Disaster Management Centre (DMC) confirmed that seven districts have been affected, with 23 Divisional Secretariat divisions hit by dry weather. 

The DMC reported that 25,628 families (81,865 individuals) are impacted, and drinking water distribution has been organized for 20 divisions, reaching 23,048 families (72,153 individuals).

The largest relief effort has been in Monaragala District, where water has been supplied to 10,264 families (33,023 individuals) across seven divisions. 

In Batticaloa District, 9,547 families (28,523 individuals) in eight divisions have received water, while in Ampara District, 2,537 families (7,882 individuals) in two divisions have been assisted.

Authorities continue to monitor conditions closely, with both the Environment Ministry and DMC coordinating relief measures, water distribution, and farmer awareness programs. (Newswire)

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The El Niño event that is developing over the Pacific Ocean is likely to be the strongest in living memory, the UK Met Office has warned.

The powerful natural climate phenomenon pushes up global temperatures and can increase the risks of extreme weather.

Added to the effects of human-induced climate change, the Met Office is warning that it is “very likely” to mean 2027 is the hottest year on record.

There is growing evidence that weather patterns around the world are already being affected, with below-average monsoon rains in India and suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean.

El Niño could put the UK at greater risk of a wet, stormy autumn.

“We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event”, said Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the UK Met Office.

“I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts.”

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a naturally occurring weather pattern, which happens about every two to seven years, lasting for around a year.

Trade winds that typically blow from east to west across the Pacific Ocean can weaken or even reverse, allowing warm water to spread eastwards.

Heat is released from the ocean into the atmosphere, lifting global temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns.

Scientists declare an El Niño when sea surface temperatures in a key area of the Pacific are 0.5C or more above average.

Current measurements show that they are well over 2C above normal.

Latest forecasts from the Met Office suggest that these temperature anomalies could exceed 3C later this year as El Niño nears its peak.

This would be unprecedented in records going back to 1950, and probably the strongest event since the 19th century.

Very high temperatures in the deeper ocean – around 8C above normal at a depth of 100m (330ft) in some places – could help to supercharge this El Niño, essentially providing a reservoir of warm water fuel to reinforce the event.

“We have many months to go while this event continues to develop and that’s one of the reasons that we have increased confidence that this will be a record-setting event,” said Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, a US research group.

Some other climate groups have projected something even stronger than the Met Office’s forecast, perhaps even 4C above average.

If that came to pass, “It’s not beyond the realm of possibility to say this might be the strongest El Niño event in 500 or even 1,000 years,” Hausfather said, although it is impossible to say for sure that far back in time.

Weather impacts around the globe

The change in the distribution of heat across the ocean – and shifts in the wind patterns in the atmosphere above – can have wide ranging effects on the weather right across the globe.

No two El Niño events are the same and the impacts on weather patterns can vary. However, there is evidence that the effects are already being felt.

For example, in El Niño years the southwest monsoon can deliver suppressed rainfall in South Asia – and so far in 2026 it is running well below normal.

Changes in wind patterns in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic can reduce hurricane activity.

So far this season there have been only three named storms.

2027 “very likely” to be the hottest on record

During El Niño events, significant heat is released from the ocean to the atmosphere.

Met Office climate scientist Dr Nick Dunstone says this can lead to “an increase in global average temperature, particularly in the calendar year following the winter peak of the El Niño.

“Hence, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record.”

Earlier this month, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization warned that El Niño could threaten tens of millions of people in at-risk countries with crisis-level acute food insecurity. (BBC)

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The Department of Meteorology has warned that there is now a 90% chance the current El Niño conditions will intensify into a very strong event by the end of the year.

Director General of the Met Department Ajith Wijemannage said forecasts indicate this year’s El Niño could be stronger than any experienced in the past 75 years.

Addressing the media, Wijemannage  noted that the phenomenon is steadily intensifying, adding: “Global forecasts show that by the end of this year, the likelihood of a very strong El Niño is more than 90 percent. Compared with El Niño events since 1950, the probability of this year’s El Niño being stronger than all of them is currently forecast at nearly 70 percent.”

Wijemannage further said that a notable increase in body temperature has been observed among people in the North, North-Central, and North-Western provinces, as well as in the Monaragala and Hambantota districts. 

However, an increase in body temperature has not been noted much in the Western and Sabaragamuwa Provinces due to intermittent rain conditions. 

Meanwhile, the Irrigation Department reported that water levels in reservoirs under its control have dropped to 37 percent, urging the public to use water sparingly. 

Director of Water Management, Engineer H.N.P.S.D. Herath said the current volume is expected to be sufficient for the Yala season and until the November–December rains arrive.

At the same time, the National Water Supply and Drainage Board confirmed that water treatment plants across the island are operating at 100 percent capacity. 

Water Board Chairman Chandana Bandara said supply has not been reduced despite dry conditions in several districts, though more than 56 percent of reservoirs under the Irrigation Department have shown reductions in water levels. (Newswire)

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Minister of Water Supply Susil Ranasinghe says the current water levels in the Labugama and Kalatuwawa reservoirs are adequate to ensure uninterrupted supply for the next three months, even if no rainfall is received during that period.

Speaking to the media, the Minister noted that while forecasts under El Niño conditions suggest drier‑than‑expected weather in August and September, experts from the Water Supply Board have confirmed that the reservoirs’ present capacity is sufficient to meet demand.

He added that no decision has been taken on imposing water cuts, and authorities expect no risk within the next two months.

However, Ranasinghe cautioned that changing weather patterns could alter the situation. (Newswire)

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Minister of Environment Dammika Patabendi has warned that the El Niño condition has now developed severely and could reach its peak stage in Sri Lanka earlier than expected, possibly by November.

Speaking at a media briefing to raise awareness of the phenomenon’s impact, the Minister said Sri Lanka may face severe dry weather during July, August, and September, followed by heavy rainfall in October, November, and December. 

He stressed that state institutions are already taking strong measures to confront the situation, which he described as a global environmental challenge rather than one confined to Sri Lanka.

The Minister emphasized the importance of public cooperation, warning of the possibility of a severe drought. 

He urged citizens to use both energy and water sparingly, noting that the El Niño impact could lead to job losses, economic setbacks, and even deterioration of public health.

Meanwhile, Director General of the Department of Meteorology Ajith Wijemanna stated that the El Niño condition could reach a very strong level. 

He explained that while the phenomenon had previously remained weak globally, it has now developed to a moderate stage and is intensifying.

Wijemanna noted that El Niño typically lasts for 10–12 months and could bring both drought and heavy rainfall in the coming days. 

He said rainfall is expected to increase in districts such as Western, Sabaragamuwa, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, and Matara, while other regions may experience dry conditions and rising temperatures.

By late September, some rainfall is expected, with heavier rains likely from October onwards. 

The Meteorology Department also cautioned that flood conditions could arise during the final months of the year. (Newswire)

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The Cabinet of Ministers has approved the establishment of a special ministerial sub‑committee and an official committee to coordinate Sri Lanka’s national response to the anticipated El Niño climatic phenomenon.

Sri Lanka, highly vulnerable to climate variability, faces heightened risks of altered rainfall patterns, extreme heat, droughts, and floods due to El Niño, with potential adverse effects across economic and social sectors. 

Scientific forecasts indicate that impacts could emerge from the latter part of this year, prompting the government to act swiftly.

According to the government, the national‑level programme will strengthen coordination among state institutions, local authorities, NGOs, the private sector, and community organizations. 

Key measures include preparing short‑, medium‑, and long‑term plans to manage possible water, electricity, and food crises, ensuring integrated operations among agencies, and raising public awareness to minimize disaster risks.

The Ministerial Sub‑Committee will be chaired by Environment Minister Dammika Patabendi and include Agriculture Minister K.D. Lal Kantha, Plantation and Rural Infrastructure Minister Samantha Vidyaratne, Ports, Civil Aviation and Energy Minister Anura Karunatilake, Trade and Food Security Minister Wasantha Samarasinghe, and Housing and Water Supply Minister Susil Ranasinghe.

Supporting them, an Official Committee chaired by the Secretary to the President brings together secretaries of key ministries, the Director Generals of Irrigation, Agriculture, Wildlife Conservation, Meteorology, Disaster Management, and the Mahaweli Authority, along with heads of the National Water Supply and Drainage Board, National Disaster Relief Services Centre, and Electricity Generation Lanka (Pvt) Ltd.

The coordinated framework is designed to mitigate El Niño’s potential impact on vital resources and safeguard communities through proactive planning and rapid response. (Newswire)

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Leading expert in climate change and meteorology, Dr. Ranjith Punyawardena, delivered a comprehensive awareness session on the impending El Niño phenomenon, during a special discussion held at the Ministry of Plantation and Community Infrastructure, on Wednesday (10). 

Outlining the potential risks of the El Niño phenomenon and the precautionary measures needed to mitigate its impact, his presentation emphasized the importance of preparedness in safeguarding communities and industries against climate‑related challenges.

The session focused on how El Niño could affect Sri Lanka’s plantation industry and the plantation community. 

Minister of Plantation and Community Infrastructure Samantha Vidyarathna said that primary focus was directed toward safeguarding the livelihoods of the plantation community while maintaining national production targets, and specifically minimizing the potential impacts on vulnerable families.

He further said extensive discussions were also held on soil and water conservation, promoting micro-irrigation technology, providing timely weather updates to farmers, capacity building of field officers, and implementing modern technological solutions.

“We remain fully committed to driving our country’s plantation industry forward resiliently, even amidst climatic challenges, and taking all necessary steps for the well-being of the plantation community,” he said in a statement. (Newswire)

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El Niño has formed in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to intensify in the coming months, meteorologists say.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (or NOAA) on Thursday officially confirmed the arrival of El Niño, a prolonged period of warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which affects weather patterns across the globe.

For months, weather officials had been warning that a strong El Niño would almost certainly develop this year, driven by warm ocean waters near the equator.

What’s less certain is how strong this year’s El Niño will be. According to NOAA, there is a 63% chance between November 2026 and January 2027 of sea surface temperatures exceeding 2°C (or 3.6°F) above their historical averages — which forecasters would consider a very strong or “super” El Niño.

Such an event could saddle the southern half of the United States with a much cooler and wetter winter and ultimately fuel what could turn out to be the hottest year on record.

“El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said.

Here’s what El Niño is — and how its rare “super” variant could wreak havoc.

Explaining El Niño

Normally, Pacific trade winds blow west across the equator, carrying warm South American water toward Asia. Cold water then “upwells” from the depths to replace the warmer surface water that’s been pushed away.

El Niño is a natural climate cycle that disrupts this pattern. It’s triggered by weaker-than-usual trade winds — winds that end up allowing much of that warm water to flow back toward the west coast of the Americas.

Ultimately, that warmer water forces the Pacific jet stream — a high-altitude air current that acts as a 7,000-mile “conveyor belt” pushing storms east across the Pacific toward North America — to move south of its usual path, altering weather patterns across the U.S. and the globe.

La Niña is the exact opposite: stronger trade winds, colder water and a Pacific jet stream that moves north rather than south.

El Niño and La Niña happen roughly every two to seven years and last nine to 12 months. El Niño generally arises more frequently than La Niña.

Weak, strong or ‘super?’

Meteorologists measure the strength of El Niño by how much the water temperature rises above average in a patch of the equatorial Pacific. The threshold for a weak El Niño is 0.5°C (0.9°F). The temperature is now just above that mark.

But to become a very strong or “super El Niño,” the equatorial Pacific would ultimately need to heat up by 2°C (or 3.6°F). That’s a lot less common.

If a “super El Niño” develops in 2026, it would be the first since 2015-2016 — one of the strongest on record, according to NOAA. Others occurred in 1997-1998, 1982-1983 and 1972-1973.

How would a ‘super El Niño’ affect the weather?

It’s hard to say exactly. The 2015-2016 “super El Niño,” for example, didn’t deliver a wetter-than-average winter in Southern California — one of its typical trademarks. At the same time, climate change has made what we know about previous El Niños less helpful for informing what could come next, because the ocean is already significantly warmer today than it was back then.

But some effects are relatively predictable.

In early May, NOAA said it’s “very likely” 2026 will be one of the five hottest years on record. That’s without accounting for El Niño’s warming impact. A “super El Niño” could make 2026 or 2027 the hottest year on record, displacing 2024.

Stronger El Niños also tend to flip the usual hurricane season equation, suppressing storms in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic while amplifying them in the central and eastern Pacific. More tropical threats to Hawaii and the Southwest U.S. are a possibility.

Extremes of wetness and dryness — and heat and cold — are possible as well. Winter tends to get warmer in the northern half of North America and cooler and wetter in the southern half, especially in the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast. Elsewhere, drought could afflict the Caribbean, while India and Southeast Asia might see fewer summer monsoons.

The economic impact of these changes could be massive. According to a 2023 study published in the journal Science, the 1982-83 El Niño led to $4.1 trillion in global income losses, and its 1997-98 successor cut global income by $5.7 trillion.

Either way, “stronger El Niño events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely,” Michelle L’Heureux, a physical scientist at NOAA, told USA Today. “There is still enough uncertainty that seeing a weaker outcome would not be a surprise.” (YahooNews)

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A high‑level discussion on the possible impact of the forthcoming El Niño condition and institutional plans to mitigate its effects was held this morning (11) at the Presidential Secretariat under the leadership of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake.

The meeting brought together representatives from the Department of Meteorology, Department of Irrigation, Central Environmental Authority, Mahaweli Authority, Disaster Management Centre, Lanka Electricity Company and the National System Operator, among others.

Officials examined how El Niño could affect food security, drinking water and energy supplies, and discussed urgent measures to manage these sectors. Attention was given to reservoir water capacity, agriculture, drinking water distribution and energy management.

It was noted that the expected El Niño situation may resemble the conditions of 2016–2017, with water management plans already adjusted accordingly. Steps have been taken to commence the Yala cultivation season about one and a half months earlier this year to mitigate risks.

The President instructed officials to prepare plans ensuring uninterrupted electricity supply, safeguarding food security and providing adequate water for agriculture and drinking needs. 

He further stressed that, as with challenges faced during Cyclone Ditwah and the Middle East conflict, this global climate challenge too can be managed through proper planning.

Senior officials including Presidential Secretary Dr. Nandika Sanath Kumanayake, Senior Additional Secretary Kapila Janaka Bandara, and heads of key agencies participated in the discussion. (Newswire)

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The Disaster Management Centre (DMC) has warned that even distributing purified seawater to meet drinking water needs may become necessary if the forecasted El Niño anomaly impacts Sri Lanka as predicted.

At a media briefing on Wednesday (10), Additional Secretary K.G.B. Dharmatilaka said the expected El Niño condition could be severe at an unprecedented level, posing risks of depletion of the country’s main water sources. 

He stressed the urgent need for preparedness, noting that the National Disaster Services Centre has only a limited number of water bowsers available for emergency distribution.

Dharmatilaka cautioned that existing resources may be insufficient if prolonged drought sets in. “This El Niño condition could dry up water sources, leaving no sources to obtain water. I think we may even have to consider purifying and distributing seawater,” he added. 

Meanwhile, the United Nations Meteorological Agency has already warned of the possibility of the strongest El Niño condition in a decade. #

Sri Lanka’s Department of Meteorology has also said the country could face drought conditions in July-August as a result, with rainfall expected to decline sharply.

Officials said there could be issues related to the supply of drinking water and agricultural activities. 

“However, an increase in rainfall could be expected in October and November. There is a possibility of tornadoes and heavy rains. Then again, we can expect warm weather from January to April,” they said. 

El Niño, a natural phenomenon caused by higher‑than‑normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, disrupts global weather patterns and often reduces rainfall in regions such as Sri Lanka, India, and Australia, leading to severe droughts. (Newswire)

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Sri Lanka’s Food Policy and Security Committee has turned its focus to preparing for the potential impacts of the global El Niño phenomenon, with ministers stressing the need for contingency planning to safeguard agriculture and water supplies.

The committee met yesterday (08) at the Presidential Secretariat under the co‑chairmanship of Agriculture Minister K.D. Lal Kantha and Trade and Food Security Minister Wasantha Samarasinghe. 

Particular attention was given to the possible effects of El Niño on the agricultural sector. Discussions also focused on the need to ensure adequate water storage in reservoirs for the forthcoming Yala season and to safeguard drinking water supplies. Minister Wasantha Samarasinghe instructed officials to obtain the views and recommendations of the relevant institutions on these matters. 

It was further decided to convene a special meeting of the Food Policy and Security Committee in the near future to continue discussions on the issue. 

Relevant line agencies, including the Ministry of Agriculture, the Department of Agriculture, the Mahaweli Authority and the Department of Irrigation, were instructed to prepare and submit comprehensive plans outlining measures to address the potential impacts of the El Niño phenomenon. 

The Ministers noted that, just as the country had successfully managed challenges arising from Cyclone Ditwah and the conflict situation in the Middle East, plans were already in place to effectively manage this potential global challenge. They emphasised that the Government was giving special attention to the matter. 

Minister Wasantha Samarasinghe further pointed out that natural disasters cannot be predicted with certainty and stressed the importance of developing contingency plans in advance to respond effectively to any eventuality. (Newswire)

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