The Institute for Health Policy (IHP) has released the July 2023 update of its Consumer Confidence Indices, which are generated from its Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS).

According to IHP, the Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS), the broadest measure of the public’s view of their personal economic status and the national economy increased by 6 points to 30 points in July 2023. 

This is the highest recorded value seen since Oct. 2021. The ICS ranges from zero to a potential maximum of 100, with levels below 50 indicating net Pessimism.

The Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE), a measure of perceptions of the future, also increased by 6 points to a new peak of 37 indicating less pessimistic views in public expectations about the long-term future of the country and their personal financial situation. 

The Index of Current Conditions (ICC), a measure of perceptions of current conditions also showed some recovery by increasing 7 points to 20 points.

The CCI estimates are based on 459 interviews conducted in July 2023 and 11, 515 adults surveyed between Oct. 21, 2021–Jul. 31, 2023, with sample sizes varying between indices depending on which respondents were randomized to specific questions and response rates. (NewsWire)

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The latest Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) polling in February 2023 shows that nationally voters are consolidating around the National People’s Power (NPP) or Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB).

According to the latest survey by the Institute for Health Policy (IHP), nationally, voters are also consolidating around the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK) and SJB in the Northern Province.

The survey also shows that support for the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and United National Party (UNP) is falling.

Overall, NPP/JVP support surged in February giving it a clear lead with 43% of likely General Election voters, compared with 30% for the SJB. 

The SLPP, UNP and ITAK were far behind with support of 4% of likely voters each, and SLFP support remained at 2%.

The NPP/JVP lead in February would have been larger if not for a gap in voter enthusiasm with its supporters saying they are less likely to vote. We estimate this reduces its lead over the SJB from 15 points amongst all adults (44% vs. 29%) to 13% amongst likely voters.

The surge in favour of the NPP/JVP follows three months in which it ran neck-and-neck with the SJB. In contrast, there was no increase in support for the SJB in February. IHP’s latest MRP analysis of likely voters indicates that in the 12 months since February 2022 when SLPP support last peaked, the NPP/JVP has gained 30 points and the SJB 11 points. 

Meanwhile, the SLPP and SLFP have lost 28 and 15 points respectively, and the UNP has seen its support fluctuate but end only two points higher. During these twelve months, support for the NPP/JVP has fluctuated, peaking in April and in

July 2022, and then again currently, but over the long term its support has steadily risen. In contrast, the increase in support for the SJB has been slower but also less volatile. 

The fluctuations in support for the NPP/JVP indicate that it has benefited successively from successive swings in floating voters. During February–April 2022, it gained support from the SLPP and SLFP; then during May–July 2022 it benefited from more voters abandoning the SLPP; and most recently from October 2022, it has gained from declines in support for the SLPP and the UNP.

In the Northern Province, ITAK has gradually gained support, with the SJB and JVP also making gains. The NPP/JVP and SJB share the lead in the other provinces.

Overall trends in the past three months suggest that the electorate is moving on from the immediate aftermath of the collapse of the Gotabaya Rajapaksa Presidency when voter preferences remained fluid and voters divided across five national parties. 

The NPP/JVP and SJB appear now to have emerged as the primary choices of most voters, with they and ITAK receiving the support of almost eight in ten voters. The other three leading national parties—the SLPP, SLFP and UNP—are still likely to win some seats in a general election, but all three would fail to win seats in many districts.

During the last four months, the NPP/JVP has led in the Western, Southern, North-Central and North-Western provinces, whilst the SJB has led in Central, Eastern, Uva and Sabaragamuwa provinces.

Dr Rannan-Eliya, SLOTS lead investigator and IHP Executive Director, pointed out that on these trends, the SLPP, SLFP and UNP would fail to win seats in many districts if a General Election was held today, as they would win insufficient votes to meet the thresholds. 

He added that the latest polling indicates that the electorate appears to be moving on from the confusion that followed the collapse of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s administration, when voters switched repeatedly between parties, with no set of parties dominating.

Full report: http://ihp.lk/publications/docs/SLOTSReport202306.pdf. (NewsWire)

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The National People’s Power (NPP) / Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) are running neck-and-neck in the General Election voting intentions amongst likely voters, the Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) polling from January 2023 shows. 

According to the latest survey by the Institute for Health Policy (IHP), General Election voting intentions amongst likely voters are at 32% and 31% each respectively, following a surge by the NPP/JVP during December and January. 

Both are ahead of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), United National Party (UNP) and Sri Lanka Freedom party (SLFP), but the difference between them is within the margin of error.

IHP MRP analysis of likely voters indicates that since July 2022 when President Ranil Wickremesinghe took office, the SJB has gained a net three points, the NPP/JVP one point, and the UNP five points. 

The survey stated that these gains have been largely at the expense of the SLPP whose support fell 11 points.

Assuming general election voting intent transfers to voting in local authority elections due in March, the SLOTS January polling suggests that on current trends the SJB and the NPP/JVP between them will win the plurality in most local authorities and wards. 

However, most local authorities are likely to end up with divided control, with no party winning an absolute majority. The SJB and ITAK will lead the NPP/JVP in the Northern and Eastern provinces, but the NPP/JVP will likely lead the SJB in the Western, Southern, North-Central, and Sabaragamuwa Provinces, and will do better in rural areas, whilst the SJB will do better in urban and municipal councils.

Dr Rannan-Eliya, lead investigator and Executive Director of IHP, commented that “This will be a huge change from the 2018 local elections. The main drivers are a collapse in the SLPP vote, and the NPP/JVP doing better than the SJB in winning defecting SLPP voters and in retaining their original 2020 General Election vote.”

The NPP/JVP has a clearer lead over the SJB amongst registered voters, but SJB supporters are more likely to vote, reducing the margin between them in likely voters by 2%.

Full report : http://ihp.lk/publications/docs/SLOTSReport202303.pdf (NewsWire)

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The latest Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) by the Institute for Health Policy (IHP) shows that the net favourability ratings of all major party leaders remained negative through December 2022. 

According to the survey, the public’s negative perception of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has changed little since his resignation, with his net favourability rating deeply negative and stuck at -72 as the year ended.

UNP leader and President, Ranil Wickremasinghe remains much less unpopular than his predecessor. But the boost in his favourability ratings after he took over the Presidency has dissipated, with his favourability rating falling back in November and December to end the year at -48. 

The ratings of both SJB leader Sajith Premadasa and NPP/JVP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake continue to recover from the lows they and other politicians reached in mid-2022. 

Their net favourability is now substantially better than that of the President. But their ratings of -38 and -31 respectively in December, means that for every Sri Lankan who has a favourable view of them, there are another two who have a negative view. (NewsWire)

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