By Sanjiva Weerawarana
It is now around 1pm in Sri Lanka on Sunday April 3rd.
By now everyone who knows about Sri Lanka knows that we have a huge people-led protest going on against the government. As I write this, all social media is blocked and there’s country-wide curfew until Monday morning.
People are demanding change. We are sick and tired of the system as it stands. So, what is the change that we should ask for? I certainly don’t want to see any form of anarchy or lawlessness coming to my beautiful country.
The good news is that it is too late for this protest to end with no change. The president hasn’t quite understood that (and hence the curfew and social media blocks) but that ship has sailed. No amount of curfew will save the current government.
“#GoHomeGota”
The rallying cry of the protest is “#GoHomeGota”. This is a regime change movement. While that’s easy to say, and has a nice ring to it, one must ask the critical question: “And then what?”
According to our constitution, if the president resigns then the prime minister takes over. This happened when President Premadasa was killed by an LTTE bomber, for example.
Our current Prime Minister is none other than the president’s brother and ex-president Mahinda Rajapakse. He has done two terms as president already, so he is unable to take over. Or is he? If he is unable to then the sitting Speaker, Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena (another SLPP member) takes over .. and I really doubt he has the capability to unite the country. My guess is that this will lead to a constitutional crisis.
So just saying #GoHomeGota or #GoHomeRajapakses is not enough. We have a governance system and that must be followed to address the concerns of the people.
(I’m paraphrasing the reason as to why we can’t just send them “home” without an orderly change. If you think that’s viable, please think through it and write up how we will govern the country after that.)
These protests started with the economic crisis we are in right now with the LKR having depreciated 50–100+% against the USD in just weeks. (The range is the gap between the Central Bank mandated rate vs. what the grey market is commanding.) If we have a political crisis then the process of economic recovery cannot begin and we will spiral down into an abyss.
The way forward, for now
The only viable way forward I see at this point is the following.
- The president fires the current government.
- The president invites someone from parliament to form a new national government. Who is that person? The constitutionally logical person is of course the current opposition leader Sajith Premadasa to be the head of that government (i.e. the Prime Minister), but, the anger of the people is not just against the current government politicians but ALL politicians. So there’s no obvious answer but we need to find someone from parliament to lead the nation, per our constitution.
- The new government should be a national government as we have many VERY tough decisions ahead to come out of the economic mess and no party will want those decisions to be used against them in the next election cycle.
- The president does not take ANY ministries or any government organizations under his wing. Yes, that’s VERY contrary to the massive power he has under 20A. Effectively he becomes a figure head president to see an orderly transition through.
- The parliament immediately brings back 19A and removes 20A, which reduces the power of the president and brings more power to the parliament, somewhat formalizing the previous step.
- Parliament immediately impeaches Nivard Cabraal as Central Bank Governor (since he is reportedly refusing to resign) and asks the Attorney General to investigate his, the Monetary Board’s and other senior CBSL officials’ role in the currency fiasco and see whether they violated any laws. Oh yeah, the Monetary Board is fired too.
- The new national government (which unfortunately will consist of many politicians who’s actions over the past years and decades too led us to the economic nightmare we’re in) appoints a world-class, credible economics team. Those are the roles of Finance Minister, Secretary to the Treasury, Governor of the Central Bank and the Monetary Board to start with. Yes we have good people — if necessary use the national list slots to bring them into parliament.
- Parliament runs a referendum on whether to eliminate the executive presidency (if I recall correctly the Supreme Court said that that’s required) before the next presidential election is due in 2024. Bottom line is we can’t afford any election right now, both monetarily and the resulting disruption of policies.
- The president can choose to finish his term or resign. If the president chooses to resign, it is critical that the president resigns after he has established the new government so that we can avoid a power struggle which can further delay the real work we need to do (i.e., fix the economy). That will allow the new PM to smoothly become the president.
- The current parliament continues until its term expires too for the same reason.
- New presidential elections are called in 2024 as previously scheduled, depending on whether the people still want to have an executive president around or not (item #8).
- New parliamentary elections are held after the presidential elections in 2025 as previously scheduled
This sequence can result in an orderly transition to a new government and beyond. The question of how to go after the crazy corruption of our politicians and hold them accountable is critically important, but independent. We do need to do that — not just with the current leadership but many of them in parliament (or out).
We the people must use this first step to make our politicians accountable to the people. They’ve stolen from the country for long enough — no more!
“Removing the 225”
Much of the non-partisan public anger is not limited to the current government. They utterly and completely mismanaged the economy and the country in the last few years (organic farming anyone?), but they are not alone in having ruined the prospects of our lovely nation.
All the current political parties have played their part in the mess we’re in. This is not a time to let them off the hook by “getting rid of the Rajapakses” and saying “problem solved”. If we as the people do that, the new lot will loot and steal like they too did when they were last in power.
However, that’s a democratic process we must follow. We need to get together and bring better candidates to the table and give people a better option to vote for. We cannot keep voting in thugs, fools, robbers, and idiots and expect different results from what we’ve been getting all these years!
(Of course there are a few good women and men in parliament right now — but they’re few and far between and they need to stand up and show how they’re different to survive this people-led revolution of political change.)
What if this is not done?
What is the worst case? I shudder at the thought but here’s why we MUST find a way within the constitution.
If the president digs in and refuses to go and uses the military to act violently, that will result in infinite people anger. That will result in a split in the military (they too are people and their families are under the same pressure that everyone else is). That can lead to an anarchic situation and all the way to civil war. That has happened in other countries before .. and we have foreign countries with interest who will put their (unwelcome!) two cents worth to turn it to their advantage, not ours.
If the president “goes” without setting up a way forward (like the above) then we are in a massive power struggle with many politicians playing to their advantage. We simply cannot afford that right now.
The real elephant in the room is the economy. We have major political issues, and they clearly led to the economic hell-hole we’re in, but we need to get on with the urgent business of fixing the economy. If the currency keeps going on its free fall, the recovery is going to be much much harder.
We need an orderly way to manage the economy and the ONLY way to get that is with a government operating well under the current system, no matter its limitations and problems!
Mr. President, the ball is in your court.
(Sanjiva Weerawarana is a CEO, software developer and open source evangelist. He is known for: His work on the Web Services standards including WSDL, BPEL, and WS-Addressing. Founding WSO2, an Open Source middleware company.)
Article originally published in https://medium.com/@sanjiva.weerawarana/next-steps-for-sri-lanka-what-is-the-change-we-want-and-can-have-e172dc8667a7
