China’s recovery isn’t suffering from a surplus of optimism. Instead of a boom that would significantly reset the faltering global outlook and give a generous lift to Asia, the expansion may be only a modest tick.
This middling performance is better than none when we are talking about a $18 trillion economy, the second largest in the world and one still in with a fighting chance of overtaking the US this decade. But the rebound is far from the high hopes that accompanied the end of Covid Zero in December. Perhaps China is best seen as two recoveries: A struggling manufacturing one, with limited upside beyond the nation’s shores, and a robust domestic scene dominated by consumer spending.
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