By Sanjana Hattotuwa, Senior Researcher
Eight years ago to the day, journalist Azzam Ameen posted a tweet capturing what at the time was the Joint Opposition’s May Day rally at Galle Face. Individuals like Wimal Weerawansa were reported as saying the crowd was around 2 million, but in a detailed assessment of crowd strength (Doing the math: 2017 May Day rally of the Joint Opposition), I determined it to be around 118,000.
Ameen tweeted similar photos of the NPP’s May Day rally at Galle Face in 2025, which was the site of 2022’s GotaGoGama. Newspaper reports indicated the General Secretary of NPP, Nihal Abeysinghe, expected around 100,000 participants. Deputy Inspector General (DIG) of Police for Traffic Control and Road Safety, Indika Hapugoda, had a much higher number. He said around 221,000 people would arrive via 5,532 buses (a conservative average of around 39 per bus, even though an Ashok Leyland Viking can seat 58).
Used, as I did in 2017, the sui generis MapChecking platform to determine crowd strength at NPP’s May Day rally. On the other hand, social media commentator Dinidu de Alwis used ChatGPT, which through its own visual analysis noted “a very rough crowd estimate between 100,000 and 225,000 people”.
I primarily based crowd strength on this photo by posted by Ameen – one of four he tweeted.
The crowd’s in roughly four distinct segments.
- Just past the Galle Face roundabout to around the entrance of the Taj Samudra hotel, there’s an audience segment that doesn’t extend to the walking path.
- From beyond the Taj Samudra entrance to past One Galle Face (OGF), the crowd spills over to the walking path adjacent to the sea.
- Separated by tents and temporary structures from the main crowd, the pavement/walking path next to Galle Road is also filled with people, extending to OGF.
- At the time the photo was taken, Galle Road is also occupied by supporters, though with significantly less density than areas to its left.
The first section of the crowd, at a density of 4 per square meter (sqm) had ~39,457 people.
The second section, at a density of 3.5 per sqm (accounting for what’s in some sections a crowd that’s visibly less than in other parts), had ~151,695 people.
The third section, at 3 per sqm (assuming that the crowd was as densely packed throughout as it is at the start, which is impossible to determine accurately because of tree cover, but has a very high likelihood), had around 38,439 people.
The fourth section, with the least density, calculated at 0.15 per sqm, featured ~1,496.
In total, the NPP’s May Day rally had, at the time Ameen’s photos were taken, around 231,087 people at Galle Face.
This is roughly around the same number DIG Hapugoda noted (221,000) and the upper limit of what de Alwis’ query from ChatGPT generated (225,000).
The story was originally published on LinkedIn and has been published on Newswire with the author’s consent.