Actor-turned-politician Vijay, who made a blockbuster debut in politics by breaking the DMK and AIADMK’s traditional duopoly, is likely to form a government as early as May 7, sources said.
Vijay is all set to stake his claim on the top post in Tamil Nadu after voters in the state overwhelmingly voted in his favour.
With a poll debut with an impressive 108 seats, Vijay will meet Tamil Nadu governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar on Wednesday (May 6).
However, in an assembly with 234 seats, Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) falls 10 short of the majority mark of 118. To become the ‘Thalapathy’ of the state, Vijay will have to bank on the allies.
Congress, who won as many as 5 seats in the polls, and is an ally of MK Stalin-led DMK, has offered its support. Even if TVK and Congress join hands, the magic mark remains far. So what options does Vijay have?
Options in front of Vijay and the number game for TVK
When Vijay meets the governor to submit his claim to form the government, the governor will ask him to show a proof of numbers. If TVK manages to garner support of smaller parties and reach the magic figure of 118, the governor will invite him to form the government. That’s a cakewalk scenario, which has not been the most ideal one in times of fractured mandate in any state.
Second, if Vijay and TVK manages to convince the governor that they have the required numbers, the governor may let them form the government but they would be forced to prove their numbers in the Assembly floor test. A floor test in a State Legislative Assembly is conducted under Article 174 and Article 175(2), as it provides power to the governor to summon the House for a confidence vote.
Third, the governor, if not convinced that the single largest party has the required number of seats, can invite the second largest party to form the government. In this case, the DMK with only 59 seats is the second largest party. Here, the governor’s discretionary power derived from Article 163 and Article 164 of the Indian Constitution comes to play. The drill remains the same for DMK too. They will have to prove their majority in a floor test.
Number game for TVK
TVK won 108 seats. But, its leader Vijay contested from Perumbur and Trichy East, winning both the seats. So, Vijay will have to choose one seat for being the MLA. That reduces TVK’s number to 107. Additionally, the ruling party will also have to appoint a speaker, which effectively brings the number down to 106.
However, in both the cases, the magic number also changes. So, the effective strength of the House becomes 117. In any case, Vijay will have to ensure 117 mark to form the government.
Another hack that Vijay can use in his favour is ensuring the absence of elected representatives. On the day of floor test, the magic number is calculated on the basis of members present in the House, plus 1. This rule has often paved way to what we know in Indian politics as ‘resort politics’. Before the floor test, parties keep their MLAs in resorts and hotels to avoid poaching and ensure their presence during floor test. If Vijay manages absence of a few elected representatives of smaller parties to not attend the floor test, the magic number can reduce, thus helping his TVK.
What is Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections Results?
In Tamil Nadu, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has secured a decisive victory with 108 seats, emerging as the single largest party in the 234-member Assembly. The DMK finishes second with 59 seats, while AIADMK comes third with 47 seats. Though a clear mandate in favour of TVK, it falls short of an absolute majority on its own, making post-poll alliances crucial to forming the government. Among other parties, Congress wins 5 seats, followed by PMK with 4 seats. IUML, CPI, VCK, and CPI(M) secure 2 seats each. Meanwhile, BJP, DMDK, and AMMK manage 1 seat each. (WION)
