The earth sciences ministry on Monday launched a high-resolution (6 km) numerical global model—Bharat Forecast System—for operational forecasts up to the panchayat level, which is expected to help address extreme rainfall events, among other things.
The system was inaugurated as India faces extreme weather events. A series of intense dust storms and thunderstorms this month left at least 12 people dead due to house collapses, electrocution, and uprooted trees in Delhi and the National Capital Region alone. The storms disrupted flight operations and led to waterlogging, power cuts, and uprooted trees, signalling inadequate infrastructure and a lack of preparations ahead of the monsoon.
The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), an autonomous body of the earth sciences ministry, indigenously developed the Bharat Forecast System, which was in use on an experimental basis since 2022 and showed a 30% improvement in extreme rainfall forecasts. The rain forecast in the core monsoon region improved by 64%. Cyclone track and intensity forecasts also improved, IITM scientists said.
The previous system took 12-13 hours to run models. Bharat Forecast System has cut down the time to around 3-4 hours. “The [Bharat Forecast System] resolution is 6km at the tropics and 7-8 km resolution at the poles,” said IITM director Suryachandra Rao.
India Meteorological Department director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the new model can also help strategic sectors, including defence, with rescue operations.
India launched its first numerical model in 1994, followed by the Climatology and Persistence Model in 1999. “Thereafter, we were using global models. This [Bharat Forecast System] is also a superfine global model developed by India,” Mohapatra said.
Numerical weather models are computer models that use mathematical equations to simulate and predict weather patterns on a global scale. The simulation is done based on weather observations. (Hindustan Times)
