Sri Lanka could experience drought conditions during July and August if the developing El Niño weather pattern strengthens, according to the Department of Meteorology.
The warning follows forecasts by the United Nations’ meteorological agency indicating a high probability of an El Niño event developing between June and August this year.
Acting Director General of Meteorology Ajith Wijemanna said current forecasts indicate an over 82% probability of El Niño conditions developing during the coming months.
“If an El Niño condition develops, rainfall is expected to decrease significantly during July and August. We are likely to experience drought conditions during that period. Forecasts currently show more than an 82% probability of an El Niño event occurring during July and August,” Wijemanna said.
He noted that El Niño events typically last between 9 to 12 months, with impacts on Sri Lanka potentially continuing until early next year.
“If such an El Niño event occurs, its effects could remain until around February next year,” he said.
Wijemanna further warned that forecasts suggest there is a 40% chance of the phenomenon strengthening into a strong El Niño by the November-January period.
“We can see the possibility of this developing into a strong El Niño condition by November, December and January, with around a 40% probability,” he said.
He said sectors including health, energy, irrigation, agriculture and resource management would need to prepare for the possible impacts.
“If an El Niño event occurs, the health sector, energy sector, irrigation, agriculture and resource management sectors will all need to manage its effects carefully,” Wijemanna added.(Newswire)