Will El Niño affect Sri Lanka? Here’s what experts say

June 14, 2026 at 4:40 PM

The impact of the developing El Niño weather phenomenon on Sri Lanka is expected to be minimal, despite forecasts of rising global temperatures linked to warming sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Leel Randeniya, Director of the Climate Change Secretariat at the Ministry of Environment, said meteorologists have forecast that any effects from El Niño are likely to emerge only after February next year.

He noted that Sri Lanka is currently experiencing the southwest monsoon season, which is expected to continue until September. While intermittent rainfall may occur during July and August, overall monsoon rainfall is expected to reduce during that period.

Randeniya said the October-November inter-monsoon season typically contributes nearly 30 percent of the country’s annual rainfall.

He explained that Sri Lanka’s location within the Indian Ocean and its central highlands help maintain adequate moisture levels, reducing the likelihood of severe impacts from global climate events such as El Niño.

“Because Sri Lanka is surrounded by the sea and has a central mountainous region, there is no significant shortage of water vapour. Therefore, the possibility of a severe impact from El Niño is low,” he said.

However, he stressed the importance of being prepared, particularly in relation to food security and water conservation, if any effects are felt during the northeast monsoon season.

Randeniya urged the public to use water responsibly and respond to any future climate-related challenges in a planned and calm manner. He expressed confidence that Sri Lanka would be able to manage any potential impacts effectively. (Newswire)